longer.blue

Space - The Next Economic Frontier For a place that certainly appears cold and empty, space certainly shows promise as something so full of opportunity. With the World Economic Forum (WEF) 2025 completed at the end of January 2025, insight reports and assessments are coming out. This past weekend I took the opportunity to do some light reading and creative short summary of what it is subject matter experts (SMEs) are speculating. Additionally, I looked at the numbers and tried to understand where exactly the assessments are grounded and make some quick data visualizations for anyone interested. What Kind of Cheddar are We Talking? According to the Space Foundation, the space economy grew 9% in 2021 to $469 billion, the highest growth since 2014. While most value today comes from enhancing Earth-based sectors fueled mainly through satellites, they predict future growth may shift to in-orbit functions like servicing, R&D, and manufacturing. So what kind of growth are we talking about? High level the space industry is predicted to grow anywhere between $1.4T to $2.3T by 2035. The upside depends on the mass adoption of new technologies while simultaneously driving down costs specifically in launch pricing and satellite operations and manufacturing. The lower bound builds into the assumptions that space technology is just inherently going to be too expensive for the next decade and earthbound alternatives are going to continue getting more efficient, more cost competitive, and remain more reliable. However, considering that the total market cap that space provides is estimated at $630T today, this means that SMEs are forecasting a lower bound compound annual growth rate of 8.31%. "No risk, No Reward" - You've probably heard that before, and that's the reality of speculation. We're entering uncharted territory, and we don't know if the growth in the space space (ha!) will lead to another Industrial Revolution, Information Technology Revolution of the 90s, or the Monkey JPG Moment of 2021. I personally believe there is alpha in the space industry. Telecoms, agriculture, A&D, and several other industries gain to benefit that increased data gathering and transportation it can provide. Since those are tangible to me, I'd make a bet on space.